5-7 and 2 STARTING TO HEAR SOME BOOS

Last Week

Without the 2 ties, it could have been a really bad week. I now have a brand new:
Least Favorite Team. And that would be the Aggies. I have ceased to be a fan for 2 reasons:

1. They have under achieved all year except for last week, when I picked them to under achieve, and then they achieved. I was sure they weren’t going to beat poor old Kansas by 30 points. They beat them by 54.

2. They choose to leave the Big 12 because they got tired of playing in Texas’s shadow. Well, the SEC West is being hailed as the best division in the history of College Football, as they have teams ranked 1, 2, and 3 in the nation. Guess which conference and Division the Aggies will be playing in next year? Good luck with that!

Next Week

NCAA

1. Nebraska -9.5 @ home over Iowa

The Cornhuskers are up and down. Last week they were down, so you know what that means.

2. Michigan – 8 @home over OSU

The big game at the Big House. The big game of the year for the Big Chill crowd. Although the Buckeyes are a coming off a loss, and will be fired up, unlike their coach, who soon will be just fired, the Wolverines are just the better team, and playing at home.

3. West Virginia -7.5 @ home over Pitt

The Back Yard Brawl is in WV’s backyard this year. And they aren’t very good hosts. Though no team in the Big East is any good this year, the Mountaineers are hard to beat up in them thar mountains.

4. Purdue -7 over and @ Indiana

Come on Hoosiers, don’t disappoint me and start not sucking.

5. Clemson + 4.5 over and @ South Carolina

The Tigers are coming off a big loss and are fired up, and the better team. They will be out numbered by the Screaming Redneck fans from SC but will also bring plenty of Screaming SC fans rednecks with them .

6. Utah State – 1.5 @ home over Nevada

The Wolfpack are good but not quite as good as last year. And Utah State is the best 5 loss team in the country.

7. Auburn + 21 @ home over Alabama

Yes, Bama is great and yes, Auburn is not nearly as good as they have been. But the Tide don’t score a lot of points generally. Like 6 specifically against LSU.. These Tigers aren’t in the same league….well, actually, they are. But just not as good as the Bayou brand of Tigers. Still they are playing at home against their hated rival, so should keep it close.

8. Baylor -11.5 @ home over Texas Tech

The Red Raiders give up lots of points and Baylor scores lots of points. Sounds like a hot time in Waco this weekend. And you know what that means……….. Diet Cokes for everyone!

NFL

9. Cinncinnati – 8.5 @ home over Cleveland

I am picking the young QB from Texas Christian over the young QB from Texas. Actually I am picking his team which is pretty good this week and coming off a tough loss.

10. Carolina – 3.5 over and @ Indy

When was the last time Carolina was a road favorite over anyone? When was the last time anyone has been as bad as the Colts this year?

11. Houston -3 over and @ Jacksonville

When was the last time anyone bet on Matt Leinard to win the game for them? Not since USC days. Fortunately I am not betting, just rooting for him.

12. NE -2 over and @ Philly

The Eagles are also up and down.. They were up last week, so what do you think? Plus the Patriots can’t afford many more losses…… Like me.

Happy Stuffing, Tony

6-8 & 1 LOSING IS NO FUN

The first part of the season, I was like Charlie Sheen..”winning”. And the second part, I am more like the Colts.. losing. My Goal of out-smarting Vegas for the season, looks kind of like the housing market there, shaky at best.

Theme Week In the NCAA

Smart Schools Strike Back or Revenge of the Nerds

As a general rule, schools that have high SAT scores, usually have low SAT urday football scores. One conclusion we can draw is that Dumb players are better players. But not always. The first 6 or 7 season of my college picks this week involve the smart schools. Starting with:

1. Northwestern -15.5 @ home over Minn.

I am going against type on this one and pick the smart school because Minn. is having a really bad year. Only in Minn. would you look forward to going to Chicago in November for the warm weather. The Golden Gophers is a much better nickname than their original one, the Frozen Rodents.

2. Georgia Tech -10.5 over and @ Duke

Again we have a smart school that still turns out good football players. Then we have Duke. Oh well, it is BB season so no one will care.

3. Vandy + 1.5 over and @ Tenn

Vandy is good and smart. The Vols are neither. Every year Tenn beats up on Vandy. This year, not so much.

4. Rice -13 @ home over Tulane

You can’t be a lame brain and get into either one of these schools. Only their teams are lame. Tulane.. more lame.

5. Navy -4.5 over and @ San Jose State

The Midshipmen are usually smaller and smarter than most teams.. but Big and Dumb is usually better for football . But all 3 of the Service Academies as well as Georgia Tech, have quick option offenses that are hard to prepare for. To beat them you have to be good and smart. SJS is neither.

6. Air Force -23 @ home over UNLV

Ditto. Do you think UNLV attracts a lot of students that are interested in Studying and Academic Achievement? Here is a hint. The school is in Vegas.

7. Houston -19.5 @ home over SMU

When I think of SMU, I think of SATs. When I think of Houston, I think of GEDs. The chance of the Cougars finishing undefeated is about 60-40. Which should also be the score this week, as neither are known for their Defense.

( Quick Question.. I am a big fan of Texas HS football but don’t they teach tackling? As all Big 12 and other area teams have defenses that suck.)

8. Ohio State -7 @ home over Penn State

This season, the reputation of the Buckeyes went straight down hill. The Tattoo scandal cost several players most of their season, put the school on probation, and cost their much revered coach his job. And they thought they were having a bad year!

9. Arkansas -13 @ home over Miss State

Miss State can’t score and Arkansas scores in bunches. The Razorbacks will “hog” the score board. Soey Pig.

10. Kansas + 30 over and @ Texas A&M

Kansas is really bad, but you can’t go wrong picking the Aggies to underachieve this year.
NFL

11. Atlanta -6.5 @ home over Tenn

Both teams are hard to figure out. One thing we do know, Atlanta plays well at home. Go with the Falcons.

12. Cleveland + 1 @ home over Jacksonville

Both teams hard to figure out. Two things we know, both are bad and Cleveland plays better home, even though that home is Cleveland.

13. Detroit -7 @home over Carolina

Both teams hard to figure.. well you know. Cam Newton started out so well, but now reality is starting to smack him in the face. Defensive lineman are also starting to smack him in the face.

14. Giants -4.5 @ home over Philly

These teams are not so hard to figure. The Giants are much better than we thought and Philly is much worse.

Go Smart Teams, Tony

3 and 6 I AM GETTING SICK

Last Week

Just when I was getting a big head, I was shot down, and not in a blaze of glory either. Maybe it is my karma for making fun of the bad teams. Some of them rose up to bit me in the butt, like the Dolphins, who choose this week to win their first game of the season. I will give up sea food for a week. And Kansas who miracously only lost by 3, unheard of! But at least I nailed the Game of the Century. After watching that game, I don’t feel good about the rest of the country. For example, I live in Texas and so am a big fan of the Big 12-11-10-Whatever Conference. I saw most of the OSU/KSU game as well as the Alabama game. One game had no offense and the other had no defense. And even with my prejudice, I don’t see how OU or OSU can compete with either of the SEC powers. OU might have a better chance because they occasionally play defense, but probably can’t get to the Big game without lots of help. OSU gave up 45 points at home to K State, and apparently can’t tackle anyone. And Stanford, or Boise? No way. Any of these 4 teams can at least score points, but will give up too many to win. Some of the experts are questioning LSU’s and Alabama’s offenses and QBs, but doesn’t Defense still win championships? If so, good luck to any one else.

This Week

NCAA

1. Ohio State -8.5 over and @ Purdue

The Buckeyes Beat the Bugling Boilermakers, in a game of teams formerly Both Badly Battered by the Badgers. I just picked this game so I could use the alliteration.

2. Northwestern 15 @home over Rice

I should feel bad for picking again the Owls, as they were one of just 3 teams who came through for me last week. But in a Battle of those teams who actually know where the campus library is, I have to go with the Wildcats at home. They just beat Nebraska in Lincoln and are on a roll.

3. Vandy -11 @ home over Kentucky

When were the Commodores 11 point favorite over any SEC team? Like never. But this is their best team in years and Kentucky’s worst. And yes, I lost with Vandy last week as they didn’t get beat by enough by Florida’s worst team in years.

4. Virginia -10.5 @ home over Duke

Both teams used to be quite bad and now Duke is not as bad while Virginia isn’t bad at all. So go with the not bad at all at home.

5. Baylor -19.5 over and @ Kansas

Last week the Jayhawks let me down by playing pretty well. And they are at home again. But Baylor scores lots of points on everyone and Kansas scores lots of points on no one. So we should be looking at a 42 to 12 kind of game.

6. Air Force -11.5 @ home over Wyoming

The Falcons have the advantage of playing at home in the altitude and since most of them are going to be pilots, they should be used to functioning without much oxygen. Wyoming does have advantage of having their whole state to recruit from. The bad news is that none of the 3 high schools in Wyoming have any good football players.

7. Nebraska + 2.5 over and @ Penn State

The Cornhuskers are up and down.. They were down last week so should be up this week. Penn State is at home with the 100K fans to support them. But we don’t how good they really are, and they have a sex scandal to deal with.

8. Utah State -11 @ home over San Jose State

I don’t know much about these teams except this. Utah State good, San Jose State bad. Even though San Jose probably has more people than the whole state of Utah.

9. Mississippi State + 17 @ home over Alabama

Of course, Bama is probably going to be pissed and may take it out on the poor Bulldogs. But they also may be in a funk. And their offense is not great. So maybe State keeps it close at home. There will be plenty of Alabama fans as it is only about a 2 hour drive. I know as I used to do a good comedy one nighter in Starkville. And it always got a good turn out, because what else are you going to do in Starkville?

10. Maryland + 21 @ home over Notre Dame

This is either a misprint in the USA Today, or the Lock of the Year! This spread can’t be right, can it? Maryland is not a bad team and Notre Dame is just a mediocre team. Take the home team with the 21 points. And the Terrapins will play extra hard to make up for the humiliation of having to wear those awful uniforms.

11. Southern Miss -10.5 @ home over Central Florida

UCF isn’t bad but Southern Miss is having its best year since the old Brett Favre days. If they get behind, he may even come out of the stands. I think he still has a year of eligibility left.

12. East Carolina – 3 over and @ UTEP

Again, ECU not bad, UTEP not good.

NFL

(I lost all 3 of my NFL picks last week, so confidence is not high)

13. San Diego – 6 @ home over Oakland

Last week I lost picking Oakland to win, lets see if I can win picking them to lose. It helps that the Chargers are way better and playing at home.

14 Jacksonville – 3 over and @ Indy

How could the Colts only be a 3 point underdog to anyone? They aren’t just bad, they are really bad. And the Jags aren’t bad at all.

15 Kansas City -3.5 @ home over Denver.

I lost with KC last week as they lost, so hope to win with them this week as they win. Got that? Plus they should be good and embarrassed after last week. In fact, this is my second Lock the Week. Like printing free money.. If I bet. AndIi would bet if I could print some free money.

Happy Viewing and Vegging, Tony

9 and 3 BAD TEAMS COME THRU FOR ME!

Wow, I am back to being smart again. My new strategy of picking bad teams to lose is working great. I never doubted you for a minute bad teams! And 2 of my 3 loses weren’t even the bad teams. They were upsets involving 2 evenly matched good teams. So, only one of my bad teams lost, or rather didn’t lose by enough. (BC actually won their game, therefore disgracing themselves, and have been kicked out of my bad teams list for good.) Which leads us to….

This Week

Game of the Century

And now this week we have, LSU vs Alabama, the NCAA Game of the Century! Ok, it is only this year’s Game of the Century, but it is probably the biggest regular season game of this century, which is only 11 years old, but still…..

Normally, I would stay away from picking these kind of games for 2 reasons:

a. I seem to be having my best success picking good teams to beat bad teams, badly. These are 2 great teams.

b. I only pick games that I like. And what do l like? Games in which the point spread is different from what I think it should be. When the 2 teams seem to be totally even, as these 2 do, then you give a slight edge to the home team, and, sure enough, Bama is a 5 point home favorite as it should be. However, I am going to go against my own advice and pick….. Drum Roll, Please….

1. LSU + 5 over and @ Alabama

After careful consideration, analysis, and flipping a coin, I am going with the Bengal Tigers because I think they are just a tad better. ( First of all they have no players named Tad, usually a rower for Yale.) Their Offences are about even.. good, solid, but not great. Their Defenses are not only great, they are way better than any other in college football. So the difference is…. I think LSU has a little more speed, and depth than Bama. Of course, they are young but I am going with my gut on this one. And my gut likes cajun food. By the way, Good luck on anyone trying to score on the Tigers next year.

2. Michigan -4 over Iowa

The Hawkeyes get up for home games but are having a down year. And, in fact, they aren’t even the best team in the state this year.. That honor, for a change, goes to…

3. Iowa State -14 @ home over Kansas

The Cyclones aren’t bad at all this year. The Jay Hawks are bad all year.

4. Arkansas -5 @ home over South Carolina

Both teams lost their star running backs for the year, but the Razorbacks have the best QB by far and are playing at home, where they will force the GameCocks to squeal like pigs.

5. Rice Even over UTEP

Yeah, I know, Rice just gave up over 70 points last week to Houston. And I know that the Rice players have the distinct disadvantage of having to actually study. But their home work assignment this week, to beat the Miners, isn’t that difficult.

6. Fla -10.5 @ home over Vandy

Yes, the Gators are way worse than usual and the Commodores are way better. But the game is in the Swamp and the Vandy players also have to study. ( Note to Readers.. Vanderbilt, like Rice, is an Ivy League Caliber school, and Commodores is their nick name and has nothing to do with Lionel Richie.)

NFL

7. KC -8.5 @ home over Miami

Both teams started out bad but one of them improved greatly.. Hint..It wasn’t the Dolphins. Actually they did play a little better last week, but the Chiefs have the loudest fans in the league.

8. Oakland -5 @ home over Denver

Tim Tebow is a very nice young man, and we know where nice guys finish, don’t we? And the Raiders have QB issues of their own, having brought an older QB off his couch in the middle of the season and thrown him in there. But Oakland is the better team and playing at home. You do the math.

9. Pittsburgh -1 @ home over Baltimore

The Ravens crushed the Steelers in the first week but that game was in Baltimore. The Steelers are playing better and at home where they just beat the Pats last week. It should be the standard Raven/Steeler game. A total war with no prisoners taken. Will Baltimore win? To quote the Raven.. “Never More”. OK just this week anyway.

Enjoy all the games including the one of the Century, Tony