3-7 & 1 I COME UNDONE .. AGAIN

LAST WEEK

Maybe I don’t know anything about Football. Ok, I heard you say, what do you mean maybe? Here is what I do know:

A. The SEC is still dominant.
B. The Big 10 is dormant.
C. So is the Big East
D. Oregon is pretty good.
E. So is the Pac 12 and Big 12
F. Alabama is scary good.
G The only thing more unpredictable than college football is professional football.
H. The replacement refs need to be replaced, or sent back to the Lingerie League
I. Seattle, Arizona and Atlanta are surprisingly good.
J. New England and GB have dug themselves a big hole, and New Orleans
has already been buried. But above ground.. Louisiana style.
K. I am not the only one who doesn’t know Didley.

NEXT WEEK

1. Virginia Tech -6 @home over Cincinnati
The Hokies are up and down, and the Bearcats may be the best team in the Big East. Both teams have good mobile QBs. The reason for picking the Hokies is they are at home in Blacksburg.. (One of my favorite college towns). The reason for not picking Cincinnati is they may be the best team in the Big East.

2. SMU -17.5 @ home over TCU
I love the Frogs but the Mustangs always give them a good game. The game is in Dallas but the place will be packed with TCU fans. When I say packed, I mean with about 25,000 people. Almost enough to fill up the Den at the Big House in Michigan.

3. Iowa -5.5 @ home over Minnesota
The Golden Gophers used to be bad. Now they aren’t bad….but still Gophers. The Hawkeyes used to be good but are now not good. I am picking not good at home over not bad. Plus, Iowa was embarrassed last week as they lost at home to Chippewas of Central Michigan. The whole Big 10 has been embarrassed this year.. All 12 of them. The best 2 teams might be Ohio State and Penn State, & they are both on ineligible. Maybe they can meet in some kind of probation bowl.

4. LOCK OF THE WEEK ( OK this year has been so bad that I have been wrong on my Dead Certain, 100% guaranteed locks. So be afraid, be very afraid)

WVU -10.5 @ home over Baylor
First of all, WVU might end up being the best of the teams in the Big 12, all 10 of them. The Mountaineers fans will be even more fired up, i.e. drunk this week. As they will playing in their first Big 12 game ever. WVU has a Big 12 type offense and Baylor has a Big 12 type defense WVU loves to score and Baylor loves to let people score. Final score..something like 70 to 50 Mountaineers.

NFL

5. Seattle -3 over and @ St. Louis
They say that cheaters never win. Apparently “they” weren’t at the Monday night game in Seattle. But the Seahawks are pretty good and pretty lucky. The Rams are a better than we thought but I don’t think they cover the 3 points.

6. 2nd LOCK OF THE WEEK

New England – 3 over Buffalo
The Patriots can’t possibly lose 3 in a row can they? Especially not to the Bills. This year you never know. But I am betting on NE.. if I could bet, and if I had any money to bet with, that is.

7. SF -3.5 over and @ NY Jets
The 49ers are good. And they lost last week, so they will be good and mad. The Jets lost Reaves for the year. SF has a great D. There won’t be much scoring in the game, except for Mark Sanchez after the game. After all, you are a good looking, single QB for the Jets, how could you not score. Unless you are a Virgin.

8. Arizona -5.5 @ home over Miami
The Cards are the surprisingly good, and the Dolphins are surprisingly not bad. But Arizona is at home and fish don’t do well in the desert.

9. NY Giants -3 over and @ Philadelphia
The Eagles are a dangerous team, especially coming off a loss. They might explode like a hand grenade. The only question is will they go off on the Giants or in their own hand. The Giants might be the most consistent team in the league. They might lose but won’t self destruct.

10. Dallas -3 @ home over Chicago
Would the real Bears and the real Cowboys please stand up. In a game with 2 unpredictable teams, I predict the home team wins.

Happy Vegging, Tony

BACK FROM THE DEAD! (6-3-1)

LAST WEEK

Prognostications of my death as a Prognosticator were greatly exaggerated. In fact I nailed 5 out of 6 college games.. The pros.. not so much..1-2-1. Is it just me or does this year seem to be a little crazy? In both college and the NFL, it seems thing are extra unpredictable, which is not good for those in the prediction business. You know, like Louisiana Monroe beating Arkansas and almost being Auburn on the road, and, in the pros, Arizona beating New England at home and St. Louis beating.. well.. anybody. It is going to be one of those years. That makes it fun, for everyone except maybe book makers.
One thing maybe way too predictable is the NCAA National Championship. Right now it is wide open and anybody can win.. 2nd place! As for the Championship itself, shall we just go ahead and give it to Alabama? They need to do some Steroid testing down in Tuscaloosa. This team is just too big, too fast and too good. Realistically the one game they could lose would be to LSU in Baton Rouge. Yes the best 2 teams again appear to be in the same division of the same conference, the SEC West. (That is the same division that you joined Texas A&M.. Good luck with that.) But the Tide will probably win that game too because they will be pointing to it..In fact the best chance for an upset might be some lesser team that they are over looking.. like Tenn is on the road or even the Aggies the week after their annual Game of the Century with the Bengal Tigers.. But I wouldn’t bet on it. However the race for 2nd will be keep us entertained. To see who gets the privilege of going to the Championship game and get rolled by the Tide. After all the Ancient Mayans considered it to be an honor to be the one chosen to be sacrificed to the Gods.

THIS WEEK

NCAA

1. Tulsa -5.5 @ home over Fresno State The teams of Tulsa and Fresno are way more exciting than the towns of Tulsa and Fresno. And Tulsa’s team is a little better and the town slightly less depressing.

2. Arizona + 26.5 over and @ Oregon What is the over/under on this game? Like 100 points! The Wildcats already have rung on over 50 points on Oklahoma State and the Ducks average about 50 points a game. So here is my prediction. Oregon 60, Arizona 40.. And Zona covers the spread by 6 points.

3. Georgia Tech -13 @home over Miami I am sticking with the Engineers as long as possible. People just cant figure out their option offense in a week of practice And people cant figure out if Miami will show up each week. And you got to be smart to get into Tech. You have to be…huh.. fast to get into Miami.

4. Air Force -14 @home over UNLV Air Force also has an option that confuses defenses. And they have the added advantage of playing at a high altitude. UNLV is from the Desert. They will be gasping for air, by the 4th period. Like the things that happen in Vegas, the Running Rebels should have stayed in Vegas.

5. Florida Atlantic + 56 over and @ Alabama I know..I know. I just said that Bama is the best thing since baked bread. But they don’t pass a lot and they don’t run up the score because they dont need to. They just crush teams. And then call off the dogs. So I am thinking that they will “only” win by 40 or so.

6. Florida 23.5 @home over Kentucky Florida’s team is to Niemen Marcus as Kentucky’s team is to.. Walmart.

NFL

7. Jets -3 over and @ Miami A good team playing badly vs a bad team playing goodly. (Or.. well.. for those of you who went to Georgia Tech)

8. Detroit -2.5 over and @ Tennessee Both teams are coming off loses. The game is in Nashville.. advantage Titans. But Detroit is the better team..advantage Lions.

9. Indianapolis -2.5 @ home over Jacksonville Two teams going nowhere. Actually that is wrong. Jacksonville is going to LA in a couple of years. And the Colts have
“Luck” on their side.

10. Washington – 2 @home over Cincinnati I am going with the young Baylor QB over the young TCU QB. And the Skins are at home. Like everyone else, I just love RG3.. Not in that way!

11. Houston + 1.5 over and @ Denver The Broncos are coming off a loss in which Peyton didn’t play well. And they are mile high. Two factors that favor the Broncos. But the Texans probably have the most balanced team in the league. Good D, good O. I picked them to go all the way and they have disappointed me yet. Unlike some teams I could mention.

Happy Vegging

I Go Down In Flames

LAST WEEK

Last Week my picks were just awful, but whose counting? Well probably only me, so I should just keep my mouth shut. But I am in show biz and we aren’t good at that. Last week’s Body Count.. 3 out of 11. Nostradamus I am not. Monkey’s flipping coins could do better. Maybe I should get out of the prediction business. Maybe I should get out of the blog business. Oh wait. I just remembered. No one is paying me so it isn’t really a business.. So I will keep going.

I lost one game by one point but missed most of others by a mile. Even my 2 mortal locks prove to me less than mortal. I usually say you can bet the farm on these. If you did, well you didn’t need that farm anyway. Who wants to get up at 4 am to milk cows? The Saints prove to be Sinners and not only didn’t win by 7 at home, they lost by 8. At least Detroit won but they didn’t cover. So we burn the game film from last week and pretend it happen right? Again I don’t dwell in the past unless, I do well then I dwell and gloat a lot. So lets forge blissfully ahead.

THIS WEEK

College

1. Northwestern -4.5 @ home over BC Teams about even but NW is at home. Both teams SATs are better than their stats.

2. Texas A&M -14 @ home over SMU Aggies are looking fondly at the old days.. last year that is. When the got to play teams like SMU and not teams like MSU and LSU.

3. Louisville -4 @ home over North Carolina Louisville better than usual. NC is a lot like Miami.. They somehow cheated and got worse.

4. Georgia Tech -10 @ home over Virginia Most people don’t know how to prepare for Tech’s option offense. And most people don’t know that Virginia had a football team.

5. Texas Tech – 33.5 @ home over UNM The Red Raiders like to score. The Lobos like to let people score. Kind of like Lindsey Lohan.

6. Kansas State -28 over UNT K State bet Miami by 39 last week. What do you think they are going to do to North Texas. My old alma mater is way more Green than Mean.

NFL

7, NY Giants -7 @ home over Tampa Bay The Bucks looked surprisingly good last week but the Giants are coming off a loss and are mad. New Yorkers are like the Hulk. You wouldn’t like them when they are mad.

8. New Orleans – 2.5 over and @ Carolina Both teams were upset last week and now are upset. And Carolina is at home where they probably will score more than the 10 points the got last week. But NO should find their lost offense. Pictures of which were put on milk cartons last week.

9. Kansas City – 3. 5 over and @ Buffalo Both teams are coming off loses and the Bills are at home. But KC was my pick as the Surprise team of the year. In keeping with last week’s prognostications, it was no surprise that my surprise team lost. But I am loyal and stick with my picks.. For one more week anyway.

10. Houston -7.5 over and @ Jacksonville The Texans were my pick to win it all and they actually won for me last week. So I will stick with them to neuter the Panthers.

Happy Viewing

A Brief History of Blogs

Remember the old days? Like 4 or 5 years ago…..before Blogs. Way back then, there were people who wrote for newspapers. And then there was the rest of us. Some of you may not remember this. Some of you may not remember newspapers. But many of us thought that we knew more and could write better than the professionals. It turns out we were wrong! But at least it gives us something to do and keeps us off the streets, so we are not a danger to others.

Last Week Didn’t Count…….. Right?

I kind of rushed thru the first week’s blog and didn’t even enter it into my official blog at wordpress.com, so we can pretend it didn’t count right? For those of you lucky enough to have missed it, you didn’t miss much. I missed 4 of my 5 college picks. But I will stick with my long range pick of USC to win it all. They did their part. And Wisconsin to again be my dark horse pick or surprise team. Their first game was a surprise…. to them. Maybe the Badgers didn’t know they had scheduled a game. But they escaped with a very unimpressive victory. I thought that Michigan would lose but would cover. I was right. They did lose and they did cover…. themselves with shame. What is not a surprise? The SEC which looked scary, was good again.

Super Bowl and Surprise team of the year in NFL

Super Bowl Champ Houston Texans

I know they didn’t even have a winning season until last year, but they looked pretty darn good at the end. I am going to trust their front office which let their 2 best defensive players go. I think they really like their young guys on D. Me too. And their Offense should be a powerhouse. Great run, great pass. What’s not to like?

Surprise Team KC Chiefs

They are a lot like the Texans. Balanced Run and Pass. And pretty good D. Just not a potentially dominant Defense like the Texans. What is the definition of a Dominant Defense these days? One that doesn’t give up 30 or more points, and 400 yards passing.

This Weeks Picks

College Football

1. Syracuse + 26 @ Home over USC

Yes, I picked the men of Troy…. actually South Central to win it all and yes, they looked great last week. But I saw Syracuse’s wild game with Northwestern last week, and they can score….especially in the Carrier Dome. So I am thinking USC wins something like 50 to 30 and doesn’t quite cover.

2. Washington + 24 over and @ LSU

This game is almost the same, except that the game is in Baton Rouge in front of 100,000 loud and drunk Cajuns. Is LSU way better? Definitely. But they aren’t a great passing team and so may not score a ton of points. Washington is a good passing team and will score some against the Tigers great D. In their Bowl game last year, the Huskies scored over 50 points. Of course, they gave up over 60 to Baylor but let’s not think about that now.

3. Nebraska + 4.5 over and @ UCLA

I picked against my old Alma Mater last week. I knew they would win but didn’t think they would cover. But they looked great. And their QB can actually pass now. So I like their chances against a improved Bruin team.

4. Nevada Even @ home over South Florida

Both of these teams are better than people think but Nevada is at home in Reno, so bet on the Wolf pack. Even though you can’t if you are in Nevada.

5. Wisconsin – 7 over and @ Oregon State

Maybe the Badgers will wake up this week. The Beavers always play better in Corvallis but Wisconsin is a touchdown better easily.

6. New Mexcio -38 over and @ Texas

The Longhorns are kind of like LSU here. They are playing in front of 100K drunk Texans and are way better. But they don’t have a great passing offense that scores at will. More of a Ground and Pound type team like the Bengal Tigers. And UNM is probably the most consistent team in College Football. They suck every single year. It is good to know you can count on some things.

NFL

7. Houston -12 @ home over Miami

Twelve points is a lot to give in the NFL but I am picking Houston will win it all and for Miami to not win at all.

8. New England -5.5 over and @ Tennessee

The Titans might be pretty good this year, but the Pats score on everyone right? Jake Locker vs Tom Brady. What do you think?

9. Seattle -2.5 over and @ AZ

Both teams had problems deciding who would be their QB would be. Because both of the Seahawks were good and both of the Cardinals were bad.

2 Mortal Locks!

It is rare to have 2 games in one week..especially the first week..this good. What makes them good? When you read the spread and think, this must be a miss print! Here they are:

10. New Orleans -7 @ home over Washington

Yes, the Skins are going to have a decent defense. And Yes! they now got RG3 to lead the O. And Yes! NO is missing some players and their head coach. But come on! They are playing at home in front of 80,000 drunk Cajuns and don’t need a Coach since they got Drew Brees. They are going to score a lot and Washington is not. Easy pickings.

11. Detroit -7.5 @ home over St. Louis

The Lions could be really good this year. Stafford put up over 5,000 yards passing last year and could be better. If Megatron Johnson is any better they would have to outlaw him. St Louis improved from horrible to just bad. But now seems to be regressing back to horrible. It is good to know that there are some things you can count on.

Happy Vegging